Martingales
Introduction
Suppose you play a game. We model the outcome of the game with the
random variable X where the probability of winning or losing is
pX(1)=pX(−1)=1/2.
So it is a fair game and E(X)=0.
Suppose now that we play multiple times. We denote by Xi the
outcome of the ith game. Suppose we bet a piece of gold each time we
play. So after the first round we have X1 goldpieces. After the
second one we would have X1+X2.
More generally, after the t-th round we would have
Yt=t∑i=1Xi
pieces of gold.
The expected value of Yi in the (i−1)th round, i.e., after we
know Y1, …, Yi−1 would be Yi−1.
Since if we lose, we would have Yi−1−1 and if we would win, we
would have Yi−1+1.
In this example, the family of random variables Yi is called a simple random walk. This motivates the following more general definition.
Definition
A family of random variables Y0, Y1, … is called a discrete martingale if E(Yi)<∞ for all i and for the conditional expected value it holds that E(Yn+1|Y0,…,Yn)=Yn.
Note that the first assumption basically says that the expected value does exist.
Towards continuity
So what is a continuous martingale?
Let us try to generalize our random walk. Let Yi be as before a
discrete random walk. Now define
Bj/N=1√NYj.
We need a scaling factor, such that it works. This has to do with
bounding the variance and i do not want to explain it.
Note that if we let N→∞ then this stuff converges
to something which i will denote by Bt. It is also called
Brownian motion, therefore the symbol B.
Please also note that t↦Bt is almost surely a continuous function.
Furthermore because of the scaling we have that
Bλ−Bμ∼N(0,λ−μ) is normally
distributed with mean 0 and variance λ−μ, the
differences between any two increments of Brownian motion are
independent and B0=0.
Definition
Let Yi, i≥0 be a family of random variables, Ft={Yi,0≤i≤t} a filtration. Then Yi, i≥0 is called a martingale if E(Yi)<∞ for every i≤0 and furthermore E(Yi|Ft)=Yt for every i>t.
Integrals
Let us integrate this Brownian motion stuff. I mean, integrate as in
Riemann integration. You know, we just take a discrete integral of the
random walk and then do this limit stuff as explained above and then
get an integral of Brownian motion.
Since Brownian motion is a stochastic process, the integral will also
be a random variable. Therefore we can characterize it by computing
its distribution. Obviously
I=limN→∞1N∑Ni=1Bi/N should
be the integral I=∫10Btdt, if it exists and if the last
part of that notation even makes sense. We have to hack around a bit, since only
Brownian increments are independent.
N∑i=1Yi=NX1+(N−1)X2+...+XN=N∑i=1(N−i+1)Xi∼N(0,1NN∑i=1(N−i+1)2)
Where the last part follows, since the Xi are independent.
Moreover 1N∑Ni=1(N−i+1)2=(N+1)(2N+1)6
as one can show by induction or a search in your favorite collection
of mystic formulae.
In=1NN∑i=1Bi/N∼N(0,(N+1)(2N+1)6N2)=N(0,13+12N+16N2)
Letting N→∞ we get ∫10Btdt=I∼N(0,13).
We just integrated Brownian motion, bitches.