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Introduction

Suppose you play a game. We model the outcome of the game with the random variable X where the probability of winning or losing is pX(1)=pX(1)=1/2. So it is a fair game and E(X)=0.
Suppose now that we play multiple times. We denote by Xi the outcome of the ith game. Suppose we bet a piece of gold each time we play. So after the first round we have X1 goldpieces. After the second one we would have X1+X2.
More generally, after the t-th round we would have Yt=ti=1Xi pieces of gold.
The expected value of Yi in the (i1)th round, i.e., after we know Y1, …, Yi1 would be Yi1. Since if we lose, we would have Yi11 and if we would win, we would have Yi1+1.

In this example, the family of random variables Yi is called a simple random walk. This motivates the following more general definition.

Definition

A family of random variables Y0, Y1, … is called a discrete martingale if E(Yi)< for all i and for the conditional expected value it holds that E(Yn+1|Y0,,Yn)=Yn.

Note that the first assumption basically says that the expected value does exist.

Towards continuity

So what is a continuous martingale? Let us try to generalize our random walk. Let Yi be as before a discrete random walk. Now define Bj/N=1NYj.
We need a scaling factor, such that it works. This has to do with bounding the variance and i do not want to explain it. Note that if we let N then this stuff converges to something which i will denote by Bt. It is also called Brownian motion, therefore the symbol B. Please also note that tBt is almost surely a continuous function. Furthermore because of the scaling we have that BλBμN(0,λμ) is normally distributed with mean 0 and variance λμ, the differences between any two increments of Brownian motion are independent and B0=0.

Definition

Let Yi, i0 be a family of random variables, Ft={Yi,0it} a filtration. Then Yi, i0 is called a martingale if E(Yi)< for every i0 and furthermore E(Yi|Ft)=Yt for every i>t.

Integrals

Let us integrate this Brownian motion stuff. I mean, integrate as in Riemann integration. You know, we just take a discrete integral of the random walk and then do this limit stuff as explained above and then get an integral of Brownian motion.
Since Brownian motion is a stochastic process, the integral will also be a random variable. Therefore we can characterize it by computing its distribution. Obviously I=limN1NNi=1Bi/N should be the integral I=10Btdt, if it exists and if the last part of that notation even makes sense. We have to hack around a bit, since only Brownian increments are independent.
Ni=1Yi=NX1+(N1)X2+...+XN=Ni=1(Ni+1)XiN(0,1NNi=1(Ni+1)2)
Where the last part follows, since the Xi are independent. Moreover 1NNi=1(Ni+1)2=(N+1)(2N+1)6 as one can show by induction or a search in your favorite collection of mystic formulae.
In=1NNi=1Bi/NN(0,(N+1)(2N+1)6N2)=N(0,13+12N+16N2)
Letting N we get 10Btdt=IN(0,13).
We just integrated Brownian motion, bitches.



Published

25 March 2015

Category

Math

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